The race before running may set up perfectly as we picture it, but the MatchUp principle WILL still apply....like when we predict a 21.4, or when we predict a wire to wire win, some OTHER horse may get the lead, or other horse characters enter the mix, but THE HORSE is still the winner, whether he runs like we predict or not, the principle is constant.
The 8...., he can get the lead at a 22.4, lets say, downgrading his 6.5 f longer 1st call speed.....
The 8 can FIGHT for the lead at a 22. 2-22.3 lets say, downgrading that chute boost a tad...
Based on this, the race will run OTE.
The 6 and the 8 will fight at one or both the first two calls.
The 6 has not proven he can fight, nor that he can keep going after being challenger or that he will not quit after being challenged.
The hard call comes, can the 8 do this at 6 f, or only at longer chutes?
The way the 8 lost badly in the stretch and final of last race, how is one to evaluate that race compared to his other two good races?
The 8 at 6 f normally runs 3rd at the 1st call and finishes badly in the rest of his lines.
Maybe its how bad he lost that last race.....had he been within 2 or 3 lengths of the leader in the stretch before finishing badly, the call is the 8 still has his 2nd back and 3rd back performance and conditioning....last race may have shown those two races were his best ever, compared to his normal other lines.
My Minds Eye also says, that when this horse was closest to winning, he NEEDED TO LEAD.
His ability to PRESS is a fluke today because there is no other lines to verify this as a
normal ability or possibly duplicatable.
Minds Eye says he did not really press BUT was fighting FOR the lead, anyhow.
The MatchUp says we do not look or lock on any one line, the TOTAL performance of a horse , now, just to see this BEFORE the race.
Boy, if we could only MatchUp a horse with HIMSELF, more accurately.
THE MATCHUP, JIM "THE HAT" BRADSHAW style, to me, is the BEST factor analysis tool there is.
VoodooFan