Quote:
Originally Posted by mamojica
I agree that the 1 & 7 were very close, but I felt that the 1 had a 3/5 second to one full second advantage over the 7, and if the 1 had run his usual race he would have won.
If the odds are right, I'll bet two horses if I've narrowed the race down to two and can't figure out who is best. But in this case, I truly felt that the #1 was better and would not have bet two horses.
Could you please explain what TE is? I don't have a Sartin background and am unfamiliar with the concept.
I use only printed past performances at this early stage in my match-up education. I feel I should learn how to match-up with pencil and paper first, just as one should learn how to do arithmetic manually before using a calculator. Eventually I'll use software, probably RDSS because it was designed to accomodate the matchers on this site. It would save a lot of time. For now, I'll stick with printed PP's until it becomes second nature to me.
Regards,
Marc
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Marc,
TE is total energy. If you look at Richie's screen shot, you should be able to locate it.
I understand the idea of feeling stronger about one horse than another, but you might consider thinking about racing in terms of 'wager value'. Let's use this race as an example. Let's say in this race you made the #1 5/2 (.28 win probability) and the #7 4-1 (.20 win probability). The #1 has a wager value of .484, which is very good, but the has a wager value of 1.1 - twice as good. Of course, you could just bet the #1, which is an overlay but you would be leaving money on table by not playing the #7, if you considered him only a slightly worse alternative. However if you had thrown him out, there was no reason to bet. On my numbers, though, they were very close.
If you want to investigate the concept of wager value, Dick Mitchell's 'Commonsense Betting' discusses it in detail, along with a great deal of other useful material. It's out of print but you should be able to find it on the internet.
Cheers,
B Jennet