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Race 8:
The trouble horse for me is the 1 Peach Brew. Only has one turf outing, that as a 2YO. Only has one poly outing and that one shows big increase in TE, but the E/L is about the same as its first turf race, about -4. Just a general comment on this card, but it seems like when horses have poly and turf lines that the poly lines are showing significant improvement, so the concern is - is it the poly or is the horse getting better? I kept Peach Brew in for analysis. Her 90 adjusted SR is up from the 86 4 races ago at Oaklawn. Yeah its a jump, but she's 3 so she should be improving. It all might be a big zero in the end, because her E/L is low for this kind of race (usually mid teens to low negative 20's)
The 7 is another problem horse for me. the 7F race at Kee last out was probably the Beard Course, so the E/L is meaningless (way high) but again the TE is large and could signal improvement. Ultimately I ended up considering all the E/L's under -10 as early pace types most likely to beat each other up.
My pick is the 6 on top of the 1 with the 3-4-8 in the mix for part of it. Small win/place or just place bet on 1 depending on odds.
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