Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 05-23-2009, 04:17 PM

Race 10:

Bill,

I kicked the 4 out on the basis of matchup against the 1, because both look to be on front end with 1 faster.

The 8 is the FPLR horse and the line looks great. Its the 2nd start after a layoff and the pace is not likely to be nearly as fast as the last race, so I used line 8. This horse kinda came out of hiding last year at the same time; won the $100K turf race on this day a year ago and I thought that the horse would benefit from a little slower pace. The CPR for line 8 is only a half a point higher, but the late part is better reflecting a little slower front end. Also, using line 8 fits how this horse runs and what I think is the shape of the race. The adjusted SR of lines 1, 7 and 8 are within a point of each other, so my win picks are #8 and #2 with the 1 and 6 as primary place candidates.

05-23-2009, 04:17 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	Race 10: Bill, I kicked the 4 out on the basis of matchup against the 1, because both look to be on front end with 1 faster. The 8 is the FPLR horse and the line looks great. Its the 2nd start after a layoff and the pace is not likely to be nearly as fast as the last race, so I used line 8. This horse kinda came out of hiding last year at the same time; won the $100K turf race on this day a year ago and I thought that the horse would benefit from a little slower pace. The CPR for line 8 is only a half a point higher, but the late part is better reflecting a little slower front end. Also, using line 8 fits how this horse runs and what I think is the shape of the race. The adjusted SR of lines 1, 7 and 8 are within a point of each other, so my win picks are #8 and #2 with the 1 and 6 as primary place candidates. Last edited by Bill Lyster; 05-23-2009 at 04:18 PM. Reason: added race number