Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

tfm · 05-25-2009, 11:29 PM

Rich

Glad you brought this up, as I use the 'fighter' angle with good results, as well.
Here's the chart for the previous race of each.

I typically bet back horses like Oldtophatandtails: he dueled early with 3 others, dropped two of them, continued dueling with the other, dropped him, then was run down in a race that (pretty much) fell apart. The race didn't favor on the pace horses and he certainly was the best of those. I bet these horses back with confidence.

I don't, however, usually bet back horses like Forest Danz. His duel was in a race with very little movement that ran 1-2-4-5 (in position order at the 1st call). Here, on the pace horses got the best of it. Of course, one could argue that he was the best of the on the pace horses. This is similar to betting back the best closer in a race that fell apart. While these horses do win, they don't win as frequently as those of the 1st case. I don't have DB stats on this, just going by what I've experienced playing these angles the past year or so.

What's interesting is that my game has pretty much been reduced to playing this, and other, angles.

05-25-2009, 11:29 PM	#4
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Rich Glad you brought this up, as I use the 'fighter' angle with good results, as well. Here's the chart for the previous race of each. I typically bet back horses like Oldtophatandtails: he dueled early with 3 others, dropped two of them, continued dueling with the other, dropped him, then was run down in a race that (pretty much) fell apart. The race didn't favor on the pace horses and he certainly was the best of those. I bet these horses back with confidence. I don't, however, usually bet back horses like Forest Danz. His duel was in a race with very little movement that ran 1-2-4-5 (in position order at the 1st call). Here, on the pace horses got the best of it. Of course, one could argue that he was the best of the on the pace horses. This is similar to betting back the best closer in a race that fell apart. While these horses do win, they don't win as frequently as those of the 1st case. I don't have DB stats on this, just going by what I've experienced playing these angles the past year or so. What's interesting is that my game has pretty much been reduced to playing this, and other, angles. Attached Images Last edited by tfm; 05-25-2009 at 11:33 PM.