[reckless]

hello to Bill L., Bill V., and to everyone:

Could I comment on your little dilemma regarding Doctor Carina at Arlington Park this afternoon? I'll begin by apologising for the lengthy reply, in advance <s>.

Looking over the data screen and commentary you provided, I did some pre-digital/pre-RDSS type research, along the lines that I used for many, many years before joining the digital future.

Right or wrong, I believe we as handicappers miss some of the intellectual fun now by using computeriztion and being away from the hands-on type of handicapping of yesteryear. But, that's for another day, and we are still much better off today in this game of ours than we were 15-20 years ago, bar none.

First off, I noticed that the Doctor's last race was run on May 2. This info opened a door for me as May 2 was Saturday, Kentucky Derby Day! It was also the second to last race day of the 5-month or so Tampa Bay Downs meeting. There were also 10,114 patrons, probably the biggest draw of the season. Tracks love fast times in front of a large crowd and while I didn't look over dirt times with a fine eye, they seemed quick but not overly fast, in my opinion. I can't say the same thing tough about the turf course.

While I don't do my own speed-pace figures any longer nor use any par times I did a quick comparison of the turf races run that day at Tampa Bay Downs. The course that day produced some very quick times, in my opinion.

Examples:

3rd race: 1 mile turf md clm $50-45,000.
Winner paid $9.40; 10 horses entered.

Fractions: 23.04 47.33 111.87 137.35
Splits: 23.04 24.29 24.54 25.48

5th race: 1 mile turf clm $50,000.
Winner paid $10.20, place horse paid $9.80; 10 horse entered.

Fractions: 22.99 46.39 111.20 136.42
Splits: 22.99 23.40 24.81 25.22

7th race: 1 1-8 mile turf $75,000 Stakes race.
Winner paid $31.40, 9 horses entered.

Fractions: 22.31 45.04 109.70 134.45 146.68
Splits: 22.31 22.73 24.66 24.75 12.13

9th race: 1 1-16th mile turf alc/opt clm $32,000.
Winner paid $10.80, place horse paid $12.00; 9 horses entered.

Fractions: 23.77 47.76 112.68 137.19 143.35
Splits: 23.77 23.99 24.92 24.51 6.16

11th race: 1 1-16th mile turf clm $16,000.
Winner paid $32.60; 10 horses entered.

Fractions: 23.13 47.00 111.27 136.09 142.37
Splits: 23.13 23.87 24.27 24.82 6.28

To me, I 'see' a very fast turf course. I didn't follow the meeting much this year but I don't recall many rainy days. If true, the turf course was probably rock hard in addition to being beaten down from the many, many turf races the track runs each week. Both could make a grass course look like I-75 in a heartbeat.

Another consideration along this thought is something we need to always be wary of, at all racetracks, at all distances pertaining to grass racing. The deep and biting tire tracks caused by the movement and setting of the starting gate puts the placement of the gate at different locations each race.

At Tampa, there could have been a very long run-up from the start until the horses hit beam/light setting off the teletimer. This will make for faster times and fractions than would be otherwise.

These were just some reasons why the times seemed much faster than normal, and probably much, much faster than the adjustments made by Trackmaster and the Daily Racing Form.

To support this opinion for this day further, notice the many 24 or so seconds run in the second and third fractions of these races, after following fairly quick opening fractions, all of them in the 23 seconds range.

Doctor Carina ran against probably the quickest pace in the last 3-4 races and instead of collapsing, as most Match-Upers and Sartin devotees might expect, actually gained ground! The win-place prices I typed was solely done to show that there were not any 2-5 Neil Drysdale or Graham Motion monster type horses winning these races, again (trying) to prove the fast times and speed figures on May 2 were probably an aberration and not to be totally trusted on first blush.

This doesn't mean that Doctor Carina is a throw-out; just her last race should be discounted, in my opinion.

I actually figured originally that Doctor Carina could be a possible bet today simply because when a contending horse is shipping in to a 'major' track from a 'minor' track, this often leads to generally good prices, if such horse is otherwise legit.

As Bill V. replied, Doctor Carina's figures aside from the now-questioned last race, makes her almost an astounding bet to some players. And maybe the Doctor is such a wager today. But, as a contrarian, I must now look at this horse as a bet against because of the very fast (and faulty) last race speed figure, a figure everyone now has via download and is probably playing the horse on.

Bill, price should always be the final arbiter. If the good Doctor wins, and pays $8, there will be people saying 'what an overlay!' And they could be right. I am generally not that forgiving, especially one that broke its maiden for $25,000 at Tampa Bay Downs in December.

Good luck and thanks for presenting this race. I love RDSS and the simplicity of handicapping many races and tracks with just a click of the mouse. But I honestly do miss some down and dirty handicapping like in the old days.

Good luck to everyone.