Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 05-29-2009, 03:45 PM

I agree with Mike on the 8. With a %med of 68 he probably does not need the lead today and may not choose to take it as others in the field with more early-like %meds might be more interested in having it.

The question mark for me is how to evaluate the improvement shown by the 5 when it jumped to 8 furlongs. TE improved almost 2.5 points! The horse's 1st start was early &fading with %med = 70; the maiden win looked more like a fighting presser, but the attempt to wire the mile field, even with the big improvement resulted in an early like %med of 69.2. this horse has been off 63 days, has had 5 bullet works and one 2nd best at 5F out of 27 and 2 works ago ran a workout 2/5ths faster than the mile race it lost!! That being the case the only question might be why drop back in distance to a sprint? To me, indications are that this horse is better now than its last race. If you use the last race this horse is 6 pts better early and 3 pts better combined.

I think the only other real contender is Mike's 8. Might have to hit the ALL button to hit the trifecta here.

05-29-2009, 03:45 PM	#10
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	I agree with Mike on the 8. With a %med of 68 he probably does not need the lead today and may not choose to take it as others in the field with more early-like %meds might be more interested in having it. The question mark for me is how to evaluate the improvement shown by the 5 when it jumped to 8 furlongs. TE improved almost 2.5 points! The horse's 1st start was early &fading with %med = 70; the maiden win looked more like a fighting presser, but the attempt to wire the mile field, even with the big improvement resulted in an early like %med of 69.2. this horse has been off 63 days, has had 5 bullet works and one 2nd best at 5F out of 27 and 2 works ago ran a workout 2/5ths faster than the mile race it lost!! That being the case the only question might be why drop back in distance to a sprint? To me, indications are that this horse is better now than its last race. If you use the last race this horse is 6 pts better early and 3 pts better combined. I think the only other real contender is Mike's 8. Might have to hit the ALL button to hit the trifecta here.