Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D
What kind of timeframe (number of races say )would you advise for Ernie or any another handicapper Ted?
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I'd think you could get the gist of
any selection method within 100 races or so. I'm not talking about validating an entire methodology - we're using the Sartin Methodology, incremental energy disbursement analysis here - but more specifically a criteria for consistent line selection for subsequent analysis by factors which are germane to your race types (e.g. for Turf, emphasis and more weighting on Late and Hidden energy readouts, but as always, the E/L graph and Total Energy).
So, perhaps, take 100 Turf races. Select pacelines to represent horses for today from best of the last 3 or so on Turf, filter and rank them according to your own Turf readout analysis, record a win wager (single/mutliple horses), record ROI, hit rate.
Then take the same 100 races and use a good Turf line or lines (e.g. Total Energy/Perceptor Total) from the last 10 races where the horse seems competitive today (e.g. recent IM finishes, or comptetitive Total Energy while making a run at the pace or run to or through the Stretch, or as always, a failed run at the pace which it won't have to face today). Using these alternate set of lines, perform the same analysis above, record your wagers. Compare the 2 sets of notes of 100 Turf races, ROI and hit rate versus each other. That's your quick and dirty study.
My guess is you may have a lower hit rate but higher ROI from the 2nd approach as horses with better recent performance are more obvious and pay less when they win. So, a few more longer prices winners by using horses with proven (but older) intrinsic ability who are fit today will bump up ROI on any 20 race set, let alone a 100 race set.
I have made this my approach (in general) to Turf analysis for about 2 years now, and I am happy (though I did not perform the above 100 race analysis for myself
). Probably about 50 - 60 races (I am not the most prolific bettor, these days), but definitely profitable over that set, and definitely due to the longer prices from more obscure horses which the software ranks well.
Ted