Quote:
Originally Posted by point618
So when you have two hides or two favorites you pass,is this correct? Oh yea i listened to your video last night it was great and had me laughing.
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Morning "Point"!
I've attached the Bl/Bl from our 1st race last night. At 2 mtp the top ranked #1 was 5/1, both the #6 and #3 were at 2/1 and the #2 was 3/1 or 7/2.
I laid that out first so now I can answer honestly. For ME I virtually never play into a race with TWO hides or horses less than 5/2 odds. I was taught this years ago by Aline Best and Howard and it has stood the test of time.
In the above race if I was to hide or bet around the 6 and 3 what would I be looking at as far as a return on investment?
Well the top ranked #1 is 5/1 and the #2 is 3/1. The question at least for ME is one of risk vs reward "Point".The MOST i can expect to get back if I bet this race(betting around or "hiding the TWO favs) is a 5/1 win payoff on the #1.
The thing then becomes is a 5/1 MAX payoff enough of a reward to RISK betting against not one but two hide horses. Answering quickly for me the answer has to be no way Jose.
Now show me another race with 2 hides but this time I have a horse going at say 10/1 or 15/1 plus another good priced guy and now I might be willing to consider playing against 2 hides because the reward in THIS race is quite different. We haven't even talked about vulnerable or false favs or anything like that. Just risk reward based on ODDS and what we have to play against.
I'm glad you liked the video. I am in process of making another one but I got slightly distracted yesterday.
I make them when I am feeling good about both my wagering/capping and life in general and I LOVE to hear when folks like you enjoy it to the point of laughter. I try to never underestimate the power of "Feeling good"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSK9kkM7GL4