[Tim Y]

I started pace analysis around 1970 with Ray Talbout's (American Turf Montlhy) Pace Calculator. By today's standards it was very crude, the variants were not accurate and one ran into real trouble with shippers. It, like the Sartin methodology, utilized 2nd call and final fraction, BUT it almost gave equal weight to both. In the 80's I graduated to Quirin's pace numbers and had the advantage (over all of those 3 x 5 cards from before) of a Commodore 64 to store that data. That is when review allowed me to see how much MORE important the 2nd call was over final fraction in most all races on the dirt. I brought that experience to Phase III and learned that program showed me the same thing: the DOMINANCE of 2nd call in evaluating pace projections.

In a PERFECT world, the 2nd call would be like the fulcrum of a playground sea saw and whatever "weight" a pace pressure had on either side of the second call would be balanced, equally, by the pace pressure "weight" on the other side. NOT in the real world. As e/l standards for distance predict, this has NEVER been the case.

Utilizing e/l profiling for each distance at each track, and then following up with the studies of e/l relativity it became apparent that early was much more important than late.

When I was a tester for the late Guy Wadsworth, I ran cards side by side using Validator and newer iterations of Speculator. (Tip of the hat to Ted in regards to Tame Dos which saved my pulling out what hair I have left). Time and time again, Speculator proved a far better program in all but turf racing. Since I learned the coding of what the V/DC contained, I can now understand why: turf racing is all about our measure of deceleration. In MOST dirt races, it is an afterthought, particularly in most sprints.

This was before all the syntho-crap became standard, but I am happy to see that energy distributions barely changed at the ONE venue I still play that has Poly: Woodbine. Have noticed, through repetition, that Poly shippers don't fare as well back on dirt anyway and the good thing about Woodbine is that the big shippers there are usually turfers.

Quirin discovered what I discovered and published his findings in Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping. If your horse is coming from more than a few lengths out of it, you are at a SEVERE distadvantage. Energy exertion, lactic acid build up, oxygen debt: the basics of exercise physiology don't change in different species. I have read much the same in studies of marathoners, cyclists, soccer players etc. you use up energy in similar ways to the running thoroughbred. The laws of physiology have been the way they are since time began and never change.

Add a sloppy race course and these differences are magnified: some days at little Fort Erie, all you have to do is find the horse that will be first OUT OF THE GATE and you have the winner over 60% of the time.

We all like Silky, Aldebaran, Lit de Justice as their late runs are exciting BUT they are the exceptions not the norm.