Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead
Sorry for what appears to be redboarding, but this would be my thoughts before or after the race.
You are correct that this horse lost at slower paces, but against what competition at those slower paces?
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I will apologize as well, because its after the fact.
But to address For The Lead, I guess everyone has to see things the way they need to see them to get a handle on stuff, you and I are still learning.
Here's my take.
But thats why we like the MatchUp.......eliminates a lot of "static noise" that is unnecessary as we try to get more proficient and faster.
The MatchUp SIMPLIFIES things, we don't care what the trainer intends to do, because we know the horse don't know what he is worth.
Besides, THE HAT said if the trainer was so smart, he would'nt be out there shoveling that stuff...,
1st, he is an early horse...
2nd, he fought for the lead, twice,
3rd, he is a multi-call fighter, as Richie said,
4th, compare his 1st call times
PLUS fighting to actually get the lead as compared to the others, he WILL get the lead,
5th, the "other" horses that could possibly "press" him or "head" him ran a 22.1 on the turf and has since then deteriorated to 23's, the other horse was 3rd by a nk at a 21.7 but has also deteriorated, changed his style drastically,
6th, the 4, 2nd race back did lose on a slow pace, but he was "HEADED", but then look, he multi-call fights on a faster pace, signs of improvement,
7th, keep in mind "pressing", making a early horse run faster than he wants is generally, not a rule, a horse running a 1st call 1hd,1nk,1no,2hd,2nk,2no,2nd 1/2 off at equivalent
fractions, so who is going to make him run faster than he wants at the 1st call?
8th, the other question is, what do the "other" early horses do or press when they are 2nd? Look at the Past Performances, not very good pressing if they are not on the lead or fighting for it, and pressing at slow times without the lead in the 1st call.
9th, heres a horse learning how to run, improving
10th, "My" Minds Eye will use his last race as a 22.1 , he fought at a fast pace and still only lost by 1 length, after fighting for half-a-mile
11th, what is the best he is going to be pressed at the 1st call today? Looks like he will have some comfort lead, saving valuable energy,
12th, the only use for the Maiden race is that we know he is Early, wire to wire..., the only use for "class" in this instance is to discount, downgrade that race as to say he was in junior high school competing, NOW he is competing against more experienced , grown folks.
13th, the last question is who is going to pass him , at those fractions, in his last race? Who is going to be right there at 44's , THEN, be on him at the stretch to pass him like the other horse did? Remember , if they try to keep up with him at 44's, they will not be able to project to their stretch time and finish, they also will be using up valuable units of energy,as Richie constantly reminds us of what THE HAT says, that the race starts when the gate pops, not at a fast stretch call and final time.
I only wrote this because of the trainer questions, class up or down questions, and all that......stuff the MatchUp simplifies.
Maybe its only good for , to others, to separate your final two horses you just can't separate, maybe.
Go back to Club Pace and Cap and listen to THE HAT lecture, he brutally chops a lot of unnecessary dead wood horses and mainstream handicapping to pieces.
Like THE HAT said, "......we want to KNOW what the HORSE can do..."
Its also a good exercise to listen to THE HAT a few times, on mp3,that way, that cowboy "voice" from Tulsa, Oklahoma is always in your head when we start getting confused and complicate things, along with Richies reminders and quotes from THE HAT.
We are all still learning, we can't see everything.....,yet.
VoodooFan