[mamojica]

This race had me flummoxed. This is one of the more difficult races I worked since I started matching three months ago. I did this one as an exercise and doubt I would actually bet a race like this.

I used as the projected pace #9’s most recent race.

1 – A smidgen too slow, so I eliminated him.
2 – OK
3 – Too slow – out
4 – Kept him as a contender based on his April 12 2009 race
5 – OK
6 – Scratched
7 – Eliminated, for the same reason as the #1
8 – OK
9 – Projected pacesetter
10 – OK
11 – OK
12 – OK

I really didn’t feel too good about eliminating the 1 and 7, but they seemed to be a fifth of a second slower than the horses I kept. In my experience, horses like this have come back to bite me.

In comparing the horses I kept as contenders, the thing that struck me the most were the 1st call times of the #9 Rimouski. I liked how he always ran close to a 21.4. I was most worried about #11, Bold Finale, but Rimouski beat him in the April 18 08 and Nov 16 08 tandems, so I went with Rimouski.

This was a tough race for me to figure out, and I don’t feel too confident of my choice. Unless the odds were good, I would probably pass. If #9’s odds are 6–1 or better as in the morning line, I would make the bet.

Good luck,
Marc