I felt that in this race there were too many horses who were too close to each other in ability. In this 11 horse race, I felt that 8 horses were contenders, and I threw out two of the horses with misgivings. There was only one horse that I threw out without hesitation. That means 10 of the 11 horses met or came very close to the projected pace, a troubling sign right there. Is this what they call a chaos race?
Usually, when I match the field against the projected pace, at least half the field is thrown out. Also, 11 horse fields are uncommon, at least in the tracks that I play most often. If I throw out half of a 7 horse field, that leaves only three or four horses to match, which is a much easier thing to do.
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Originally Posted by mamojica
I really didn’t feel too good about eliminating the 1 and 7, but they seemed to be a fifth of a second slower than the horses I kept. In my experience, horses like this have come back to bite me.
This was a tough race for me to figure out, and I don’t feel too confident of my choice. Unless the odds were good, I would probably pass. If #9’s odds are 6–1 or better as in the morning line, I would make the bet.
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As it turned out, one of the horses I threw out did end up coming back to bite me. Still, I doubt I would have chosen the 1 over the 9 even if I kept him in as a contender.
I may have even ended up betting the 9, in spite of his final odds of 7-2. I didn't watch the race live, and didn't follow the odds prior to the race. If his odds were 6-1 or 7-1 at a couple of minutes to post, I may have made the bet. This has happened to all of us: I place the bet 3 minutes to post when the odds were acceptable, only to see the odds drop disappointingly low after the race starts.
This was a very contentious race. The first seven horses finished within 2 1/4 lengths of the winner. Can we say any of these horses ran a bad race, or an exceptionally good one? Or did they run as our pre-race matching said they would run: a bunch of closely matched horse, none of whom seemed to have a real edge over the others.
I wasn't impressed with the 9. If he doesn't have the lead, he isn't going to win. And in his last race, he faded after getting the lead. He ran the same way yesterday. He was about a length back until the stretch, and then lost another length by the finish. In order for him to win, he has to get the early lead, and he can't be strongly challenged late either.
The 1 was more impressive, although not enough to put him on my horses to watch list. If he is going to face 1st and 2nd quarter mile times of about 23 and 46, and he can get the lead, bet him. In his only win prior to yesterday, and in yesterday's win, he has shown he can fight for the lead early (1st fraction in both races he was a head in front, and at the 2nd call he was 1/2 length in front). He won’t fold up if challenged, as yesterday’s stretch run showed.
Regards,
Marc