These are my projected Sheet numbers. This is experimental. What I'm doing is using the standard Sartin "best of last three comparable races." I'm then getting an overall pace number similar to a Syn number. Then I'm adjusting for:
- Weight carried today compared to the paceline weight
- How wide the horse will probably have to run today, based on post position, running style and speed points
- Previous ground loss and weight carried
The lower the number the better. One full point is equal to one full length.
This is the very first race I'm doing before the fact. Let's see what happens:
Belmont 7th:
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ssa_152741.pdf
Belmont Park Changes
Wednesday June 24, 2009
The Main Track condition is now: Fast
The Turf Track condition is now: Yielding
The weather at the Track is now: Partly Sunny, 75
Race: 7
No Superfecta Wagering
1 Charming Mandate Has been scratched
#4 17.01
#7 17.62
#5 17.95
Basically, a three horse tie for win. #4 will probably be bet down like crazy. There might be some value betting #7 or #5. Have to see.
#8 20.45
#6 21.40
#3 22.64
#2 27.33