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Patrick,
The sting of losing by a nose can be mitigated somewhat by betting on 2 horses, where the odds permit. 2 horse betting is one of the classic pillars of the Sartin Methodology. You have to wait sometimes to get net odds which match your hit rate. Doc suggested that the lowest odds of a 2 horse entry for him was 5/2 (so minimum net odds of 1.25 - 1 or so in a 2 horse scenario). I would up that to 4-1 lowest, but the actual formula depends on your hit rate and average mutuel.
Are you saying BOTH your horses were beat by a 3rd horse (one of them by a nose). Or are you betting one horse?
This relates to my post above, soliciting details. Generalities can be inspiring, but racing success comes as a succession of fine-grained decisions. My mum once complained to me that she was getting a lot of winners in the 4th and 5th tiers of the BL screen in RDSS, and of course, not betting those and thus losing. Turns out her screen was too small and she was selecting the pacelines above or below the line she actually meant to select a lot of the time! She got the accuracy bit figured out and now is much happier!
It wasn't some weird phase at 4 or 5 tracks - it was logistical. But analysing the details solved the problem. Can you share more details?
Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™
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