Quote:
Originally Posted by tfm
Jeff P has written a number of times about 'growing' a bankroll. I wonder how many have actually done so. Especially starting with small bets. I'm in the process of doing this and it's a very tedious process. It is, however, an incredible learning experience. My ROI is every bit as good as anyone's here, btw. But picking winners and winning is NOT the same thing. Having learned how to pick winners, one then needs to learn how to win consistently. This is a process every bit as challenging as the former. Maybe that's why so many here, and elsewhere, still have day jobs.
When I have a large enough sample to draw conclusions from, which won't be till next year at this time, I'll pick this up again.
As for your math:
10 bets a week would be 500 for the year. How much would you bet per race? $20? That would be a $2k profit for the year. $100? that would be $10K profit for the year. You'd need to bet $500 per race to make $50k for the year. How many can stomach a $500 win bet? And, how many can make more than $50K doing something else (putting in less time and effort, probably)?
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tfm,
Whether it's possible to profit from handicapping, given a positive ROI and whether one wants to make a living from it are two different questions. I think we agree on the former, but only you can answer the latter. As you seem to realize ROI is not about winning races, although this, of course, necessary, but about making positive expectation bets, which is, as you say, the challenging part. But others have done it, and from what you say you're doing it as well.
You seem to imply that everyone would like to turn pro, but my guess is that's not a goal for many handicappers. Of the few playing with an edge (not referring to those on this site), most are either satisfied with their occupations or, like most people, are too risk-averse to consider handicapping as a profession. Nassim Taleb's 'The Black Swan' has some valuable insights on the drawbacks of risk-aversion that might be of interest.
I appreciate the tedium of turning a small bank into a larger bank, but I know a number of people who have turned 1k and 2k banks into heavy six and low seven figure banks. To return to my example, a 1k bank, doubling twice a year would yield 3k - 300% - most on Wall St. would be pretty happy with this number. (BTW, this is assuming the bet-size doubles when the bank does - standard Kelly betting). If we assume an initial 10k bank, doubling twice a year, after three years we've made $640,000. Is this worth thinking about?
My basic point is that with even a 10% ROI you have an edge that most professional gamblers can only dream about.
Cheers,
B Jennet