Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet
FTL,
tfm didn't say anything that was specific about the nature of his play, but, in any case, why do you assume that anyone making large bets, such as Dahlman or Benter, are deriving the bulk of their profits from exotic wagering, and that it's impossible to make significant profits through any other means? Didn't anyone ever tell you that you can't prove a negative? Tom Brohamer and Dick Schmidt both made a comfortable living for years almost entirely through win betting, and other Sartin players have discussed profitable records based on win bets. ROI is ROI whether in blackjack, sports betting, or horseracing. And by that measure Bill V. is a better handicapper than Bill B..
Cheers,
B Jennet
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You are correct.
tfm did not say anything 'specific' about the nature of his play. I was "reading between the lines", so to speak. I'm sure when he reads these posts he will confirm one way or the other.
You are also correct that there are those who successfully make profits through the WIN pool, I just doubt that those profits come anywhere near $35mil. on an individual basis.
As far as "proving a negative", I think I read or heard that somewhere before.
As to Benter, as I said, if he is making $35mil a year with a 28% ROI, then he is putting about $125,000,000 through the window. That is about 2.5mil a week. Now if that money is going into WIN pools, I would think it would drastically reduce the odds on any horse he is betting, thus making it harder to achieve the ROI stated. Also, now I don't know this for a fact, but I feel reasonably sure that more money is bet into exotic pools than there is in the W,P,S pools, by far. Also, betting into the exotic pools "hides" the money that is being bet. That is to say, there is no way for anyone to see what horses are being bet in a pick 6 pool. Same would hold true for superfecta's. In both these cases there is no money in the WIN pool "signaling" action on a particular horse. example: A trainer I know once told me, the race he would love to have a horse in and feel he had a VERY GOOD chance of winning, would be the 2nd race at CD on Kentucky Derby day. First, there is A LOT of money in the pool. It is the beginning of the day, so people are betting it up (they're not broke yet) and who is paying attention to the pools? His money would be "hidden" in the DD pool. If he came out with guns blazing after the first race, oops, to late for everyone else. He already has the bulk of his money bet in the DD.
As to Tom Brohamer, I have been fortunate enough to spend a couple of days at the track with him. I am not bragging, we don't go to dinner or drinking together, we don't call each other and discuss tomorrow's race cards, I just happen to be fortunate enough to have spent time with him at the track on a couple of occasions. That's the extent of that. However, as a result of those couple of days, I can tell you that he seized every opportunity to bet into pools OTHER THAN the WIN pool in an effort to maximize his profits.
So, there you have it.