Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun
Hello Barb,
I want to thank you for your pattern recognition angle in you post.
I was playing Indiana Downs today (7/08) and in the 4th race the 1A horse, Victory Lope qualified for the pattern.
Regards,
Ernie
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This “pattern recognition” angle is a good one and one I have observed many times over the years. However, there is usually “an excuse” that can be made for the last race. Some examples are, an OFF track, change in distance/surface or a move up in class. This “move up in class” does not have to be in actual claiming price. Sometimes there are changes in class within the same claiming price. For example, a horse wins at 5K NW2L (2nd race back), then moves to 5K NW3L (last race). This is a change in class. The horse is no longer eligible for NW2L and goes to the next logical step up in condition, NW3L. Many times a horse coming from a win at NW2L will not run well the next time out at NW3L.
In the example given here (4th race at Indy, horse 1A) this horse won vs. NW2L 2nd back, then ran poorly in its’ last race at NW3L. In addition, looking at the horses last 5 races, it shows 2 OFF track races in which it ran poorly. One of these OFF track performances was in its’ last race.
So it seems this horse has “2 excuses” for its’ poor showing in its’ last race after a winning performance 2nd back. This just serves to ENHANCE the angle.