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Once I get a horse into the Top 3 BL by consistent, normal means, even though they be 3rd or a long price according to the crowd, I'd look for reasons to build confidence. Whatever work he did and over whatever quality track surface he did it, it was against the fastest adjusted pace to the 2nd call, closing as he normally does - and you have to either set or overcome the pace of the race to win it. His profile works well here. The good odds are insurance against loss (i.e. you may lose this race, but keeping within these scenarios means you can lose a number of these and come out ahead when they hit). Perhaps Win only is a bit too daring, but Win Place, or somewhere in Exactas seems prudent.
Of course you can also see best POR (ranks and time, not velocity) on the Adjusted screen.
Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™
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