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To Model and Record keep or not?
Been an interesting discussion. I've modeled and kept records right to the edge of exhaustion. It seemed most of my energy was spent maintaining accurate, some would say fastidious, track models, win models, and pace profiles. In the end, I wasn't using the models, they were using me. You could say I was leaving my fight in the Gym. So I did what any self respecting handicapper would do, I stopped doing them altogether.
Reading this thread has shaken my complacency and attitude about models and record keeping - a little loosing streak didn't hurt either - ironic choice of qualifiers, Little? I've never had a "little" loosing streak in my life. They tend to be memorable. So what I'm doing to make record keeping manageable, is reducing the volume of information I track to just those factors I believe are the essence of these programs. Remember this journey began using just three pieces of information; 1st call 2nd call, and final time.
Dusted off the Wagering Decision Form, took it to the printer and ran some copies. Turned it over, and added by hand, many of the factors from the old multi-track decision form. However, I changed the order of presentation to more closely mirror the RDSS presentation. Doing it by hand will force one to consider what really is important. My very first model tracked, EP, SP, AP, FW, FX, and %early. It worked. Added a few more items this time around, but in the spirit of manageability, and with homage to that old bromide - well mine anyway - that less is best, I believe I have a tool I can use comfortably.
So here's todays report. Wieghed down with my one page wagering form, went to the track instead of working from home. Monday is a quiet day at the local oval; don't function well in noisy settings. Did my handicapping - two tracks - as the races came up. Handicapped eight races, passed two, bet six, won two of the six, ran 3rd in two and was clueless in two. Both win prices were good $11.40 and $18.20. Bet two horses in three of the races (these include the two I won) sinlge bets in the others - they were the only overlays.
After each race I posted the information to the Wagering Decision Form. Kept all bets in $2.00 units, no exotics, that was painful for me, but reminded myself it was just for today, and not a lifetime - then again who knows? The unintended consequence of staying within the guidelines was that I was forced to slow down! Posting by hand will do that for you. Staying with win bets only is far less burdensome than manipulated all the possilbe permutations of a Superfecta.
I Bet a total of $20.00 (last of the heavy hitters) won $29.60, do the math if you must know the ROI, factor it by five (2 $10.00 win bets a race) annualize it, and it amounts to a nice bit of change. Going to stay on this track for a while.
Regards,
Chris
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