View Single Post
Old 07-23-2009, 01:10 PM   #9
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,241
That's great, re the CSV files!

I think there might possibly be a misunderstanding about the purpose of these export files. First, the export file (samples above) are not intended to be your modelling spreadsheet - merely the raw output from RDSS which you use to copy 1 or 2 lines INTO your permanent modelling spreadsheet (e.g. by track). If you want to copy the line for the Winner (i.e. marked "W" in the Result column), just copy that 1 line into your model sheet. Similarly, if you model Place, copy the line for the Place horse into your Place model spreadsheet. After you've copied the rows you're interested in, you can delete the export file.

If you normally have 5 lines in your RDSS Analysis screens, you'll see 5 lines in the export file. I will provide a master spreadsheet template with layout matching the export file for folks to use to keep their models in. Really, 4 keystrokes transfers ALL the data items into your permanent model spreadsheet.

I agree there is way too much data in the export file! In addition to identity, result and mutuel columns, I myself will likely normally look at the following factors: TE, BL/BL, VDC, E/ep, L/ep, TPP, E/L, TP+F3, maybe Hid, possibly 2nd call Position and Beaten Lengths. These factors, I suspect, apply (by track, distance group, surface) more-or-less regardless of a matchup within the race. Other factors, such as F1, F2 (either PoH or PoR) F3, DCL are likely matchup sensitive and might become rather meaningless when removed from the context of what the other runners looked like. But I'm open to whatever the info will show me!

Notice I have omitted above some popular (and useful) factors found on the Segments screen - only because (when shown as ranks) they are wholly redundant to other factors. For example: CBL1 = PoH F1, CBL-SC = PoH SC, CBL Final = PoH TS, MUG panels 1 & 2 = PoH F1, F2. Only the visual presentation of the rank info and differential from best is different. Spend some time browsing the ranks of the different columns in the spreadsheet to see which column ranks are always completely redundant.

I included (at the far right-side of the sheet) all the adjusted time and velocity numbers (because some folks asked me to), and because some like to calculate all the older factors from Phase III (i.e. Brohamers MPH), such as EP, SP, AP, %E, etc (which are no longer shown in the more modern software). I can recommend doing this only to eventually prove that reliance on those older factors alone produces lower average mutuels than using the more modern factors. But hands-on discovery is the essence of understanding.

Note: one column, the E/L Rank, is new and also does not appear on the RDSS Analysis screens, though you should be visually deducing this rank info. If I can make a calculation to compute this rank, I will add it to the final export (and maybe to the E/L Analysis screen), otherwise there's a column to record it yourself if you like. In this ranking, the most Early is rank +1, 2nd most Early is rank +2, etc. If all E/L values are >= 0 (RED), all ranks will be positive (e.g. for 5 horses, ranked +1 to +5). This might typically be the case for a 6f sprint. Similarly (e.g. typically for a route), all E/L values might be negative (Late): thus the most Late will be -1, 2nd most Late will be -2, etc. When there is a mix of Early and Late, say 3 Early and 2 Late, the 3 Earlies would show +1, +2, +3 and the 2 Lates would show -1, -2. By this means, when you look at your Spreadsheet model of Winners for, say 6f at PHA (just hypothetically), you may see an E/L range of positive values and also that the ranks are concentrated around +1 or +2, meaning the 2 most Early E/L values in a set. You may have to co-relate this to mutuels (and maybe race category, e.g. Maidens) to know whether this has any profitable predictive value, but hey, that's what a model is for...

Maybe there is a more useful way to show this E/L rank impact, and I'm open to others' thoughts (e.g. have 2 columns one for Early rank +1...+5, and the inverse for Late rank -1...-5 ??)

I would advise not to get hung up on modelling factors just because you can. I think there are only a few useful factors for any given track, distance (or distance group) and surface over any one short period of time, but knowing those in the short run may add the few hits you need per 20 races to put a 40-50% hit rate solidly in the black. I expect the universal factors (prominently: Total Energy, BLBL, V/DC, E/L, TPP) will be useful at all tracks, distances and surfaces, being overridden only by a race's matchup considerations.

Random musing: I would like to see the mix of Visual and Energy running styles (RS and ESP) in a summary for each race I model, so when scanning accumulated model info, I can be aware how many Earlies and how many Other than Early runners were in any given race (i.e. the matchup mix). Definitely for later...

I want to say that my future plans for RDSS modelling factors, mutuel impact values and tracking wagers are a bit more sophisticated than what this current simple data dump to an Excel file provides. But this export can be useful in the interim (since that interim will likely last a few more months yet...)

Looking forward to more comments!

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-23-2009 at 01:14 PM.
Ted Craven is offline