[For The Lead]

I took the last 97 races ( it just worked out that way) at PEN and did some checking.

My #1 TPR horse won at a rate of 27% and returned $2.68 for each $2.00 wagered, an ROI of 34%. Not bad for single horse betting. And that is an ‘overall view’ of how PEN is playing since TPR was the best factor. Now if you are happy with that, you don’t need to do anything else. But, because it is my usual “MO”, I took a closer look, which means I broke it down further.

The first thing I did was look at “females” vs. “males”. Here’s what I found.
#1 TPR for females returned $2.45 for each $2.00 wagered, still not too bad, but not as good as the overall.
#1 TPR for males returned $2.90 for each $2.00 wagered. Now this is MUCH BETTER than the overall. But let’s take an even closer look.

Any maiden race ( maiden claiming or maiden special weight) returned $0.86 for each $2.00 wagered. A negative -57% ROI. WOW! I guess you wouldn’t want to bet those races, huh? There were 25 of these races, so let’s take them out and see what happens.

Now, 37 races for females that are not maidens returned $3.08, a +54% ROI and a 32% win rate.
Now, 35 races for males that are not maidens returned $3.55, a +77.5% ROI and a 31% win rate.
And all I did was a little research and found 25 races that were dragging down profits.

This is the power of breaking down models. And if you are playing a track with a long meet you can break them down even further, as an example, by distance, restrictions, etc. Doing so really helps the bottom line!

Now just in case you were wondering, the #1 TPR at MNR, over the same period of time, returned a PALTRY $ 1.22 for every $2.00 wagered. A negative ROI of -39%. Although there are good factors at MNR, as you can see, #1 TPR isn’t one of them.

As Tim Y said in a previous post, "each track has its' own footprint".
In my opinion, it's just a matter of how deep that footprint goes.