Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
thxs FTL...understood what your saying...
now suppose your program picks a paceline ,say 3 back...do u examine the PP to see if the horse has gone off form...
This is a question that I've thrown around with not much answers , how do u determine if the horse is going off form or coming back to a good race.
mike
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Yes, I check the line. Since I did the programming on this, I am always checking my work to make sure I am getting what I was hoping to get when I wrote the program.
Beyond that, if I get a paceline 3 back it is generally because (as an example) today is a 6f dirt and neither the last line nor two back were similar in distance/surface. If I get a paceline 3 back and the last line and the line two back were similar to today's distance/surface, I do check the last two lines. Again, mostly to check my work. Built into my program are some parameters that will skip over races because of differences in class compared to today. Understand that all this programming was in an effort to replicate in an automated way what I would do manually. I had to ask myself, "what would I forgive" in order to go back a line (or two). Granted, this becomes a matter of an individual's observations and opinions.
So, you have a horse with a good race 3 back. At that point the horse was obviously in good shape. In its' last two races, what happened that it did not continue that good form? If the answer is a change in distance and surface, I will forgive it, with the consideration that those races did not hurt the horses form, it just wasn't the type of race at which the horse performs best. Likewise, if the answer is, the horse raced over its' head and is now coming back to a similar class race, I will forgive it. And then there is all the class variations. Here's an example.
Last race = 5k clm OPEN (ran bad)
2 back = 6500 clm NW3L (ran bad)
3 back = 5k clm NW2L (WON race)
In this case I will accept the line 3 back. Keep in mind, that when I say the horse "ran bad", I don't mean that the horse trailed the field. In my opinion, an "in form" horse generally shouldn't trail the field, but if there is a surface change and the horse really doesn't like the surface it is possible. I hope this helps.