[tfm]

This bugged me as well. Before the race, I checked out the 7/03 replays and noted that Starlarks was wider both turns than Strawberry Tart. She also moved SOONER. This is not necessarily a negative. ST got a nice inside trip and last moved the field. She was running away from Starlarks at the end. The problem, however, was that it appeared, from their previous races, that Starlarks would certainly be ahead of ST going into the stretch. Anyone who thought that ST would move 1st and be run down by Starlarks probably has a crystal ball. But this is exactly what happened. And, here's why it happened. After the race, Solis was interviewed and he mentioned that Starlarks was a horse that was not able to relax early. The connections had concerns about this. As luck would have it,however, she was squeezed between horses at the start, and, for some reason, according to Solis, she relaxed, for the 1st time, and, was thus able to make the last move.

There are things that make sense before the race and things that just can't be accounted for. If I miss one of the former, I try to learn from the experience. This was a case of fortuitous circumstances that resulted in an otherwise unexpected result. I can't really count on LUCK to win at this game, can I?

Here's the chart of the 7/3 race, to put it all into context:

Btw, these types of races where a single horse opens a long early lead and the fields comes like a cavalry charge, all together, are just about the most difficult ones to make sense of. More often than not, they're won by a last mover. Who would I like back from this chart? Nothing sticks out.