Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

PeteC · 08-05-2009, 01:24 PM

Hi Rich-

I looked at this race this morning and thought it was pretty interesting. I can use lots of help with marathons. I'll lay out my take on the race, but I have some questions along the way maybe you can help with...

#1 Ghetto On my first run through this race I felt like this one is a lone early who is pretty fast off the last line (47 and 111.3) I see in both of his wins though he needs a clear lead. After looking at the mile times of some other contenders it appears that he is not quite as fast at that point.

There were three OTE runners that I saw as sticking out at the mile mark:

#2 Zappa He ran Sus in his last, closing to be fourth against a very fast early pace (22.2 45.2 109.1 134), beaten 3 lenghts at the mile I guess that makes 134.3. Going down to line 6 he went wtw and earned a 134.1. He's only won before early, but his last two races show he's changed his style to OTE.

#9 Unusual. Ran a close 4th last time against a fast final time (23.4 47.2 111.1 134.2), beaten 1.6 lenghts makes about at 134.3 or 134.4

#10 Sir Ran a good race last time closing to 2nd versus a ridiculously slow pace, so I went back to line 2 (45 109.3 133.4) where he only finished a neck behind.

So here are is my final matchup:

#2 Zappa 22.2 45.2 109.1 134 7-8-8-4
23.3 47.1 111.0 134.1 1-1-1-1

#9 Unus 23.4 47.2 111.1 134.2 9-9-6-4

#10 Sir 45 109.3 133.4 5-3-2-2

To me, #10 really stands out with a mile time edge and based on "closest to the pace factoring POR" as well.

I have two questions though:

1) In the final analysis, are you strictly matching mile times, or do use that in conjunction with the "closest to the pace factoring pace of race"?

2) Is there an early / other than early decision? If this race was 1 1/16 or 1/ 1/8 today, I would give strong consideration to #1 Ghetto. I don't see another early or early presser who could bother him versus a 47 111.3, unless Zappa reverts back to his previous early form. But, using the mile mark as an inidcator, OTE horses clearly look faster.

Anyway, thanks for the race, and appreciate any feedback.

08-05-2009, 01:24 PM	#4
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hi Rich- I looked at this race this morning and thought it was pretty interesting. I can use lots of help with marathons. I'll lay out my take on the race, but I have some questions along the way maybe you can help with... #1 Ghetto On my first run through this race I felt like this one is a lone early who is pretty fast off the last line (47 and 111.3) I see in both of his wins though he needs a clear lead. After looking at the mile times of some other contenders it appears that he is not quite as fast at that point. There were three OTE runners that I saw as sticking out at the mile mark: #2 Zappa He ran Sus in his last, closing to be fourth against a very fast early pace (22.2 45.2 109.1 134), beaten 3 lenghts at the mile I guess that makes 134.3. Going down to line 6 he went wtw and earned a 134.1. He's only won before early, but his last two races show he's changed his style to OTE. #9 Unusual. Ran a close 4th last time against a fast final time (23.4 47.2 111.1 134.2), beaten 1.6 lenghts makes about at 134.3 or 134.4 #10 Sir Ran a good race last time closing to 2nd versus a ridiculously slow pace, so I went back to line 2 (45 109.3 133.4) where he only finished a neck behind. So here are is my final matchup: #2 Zappa 22.2 45.2 109.1 134 7-8-8-4 23.3 47.1 111.0 134.1 1-1-1-1 #9 Unus 23.4 47.2 111.1 134.2 9-9-6-4 #10 Sir 45 109.3 133.4 5-3-2-2 To me, #10 really stands out with a mile time edge and based on "closest to the pace factoring POR" as well. I have two questions though: 1) In the final analysis, are you strictly matching mile times, or do use that in conjunction with the "closest to the pace factoring pace of race"? 2) Is there an early / other than early decision? If this race was 1 1/16 or 1/ 1/8 today, I would give strong consideration to #1 Ghetto. I don't see another early or early presser who could bother him versus a 47 111.3, unless Zappa reverts back to his previous early form. But, using the mile mark as an inidcator, OTE horses clearly look faster. Anyway, thanks for the race, and appreciate any feedback.