Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Marathons, Marathons and more Marathons Saturday at Arlington

Bill Lyster · 08-07-2009, 11:29 PM

Three foreign horses make this race pretty tough to get warm and fuzzy.

The 1 Alnadana has run a mile in 137 not bad by European standards but that was a year ago in Italy, so probably not the highest competition.

Neither the 5 or the 8 have times that convert to competitive ones. Lately the 5 has run up to a mile; last year ran 12 and 10f races.

the 8 Denomination is a Grade 1 winner this year at 10f so has to be respected.

The locals:

3 - Points last raced at Woodbine in 133.3 with a 2.5 L comfort margin at the mile which was hardly compromised on the run in. Keep;

7 - Dynaforce has a 134.7 with the lead but in most of his races he fades after a mile, so he is out.

2 - Pure Clan and 4 - Black Mamba run about 135.4 and 135.3 respectively; both have good power moves - 7-4-1 and 4-3-1 with Black mamba running from 4th position making up 4.5 lengths while gaining a position. BM finished in 159.7. Pure Clan closed 1.6 and 0.8 lengths to finish in 200.5, so a slight nod goes to Black Mamba between these two.

the 2-3-4 are kind of chalky, but if the 8 is the real deal it could help the pricing here. I think the odds on the 3 should rise, meaning that the 2 and 4 are likely to be even lower than the ML.

Oh well. Not a lot of interest in this race except for perhaps a few pick three tickets with the races before and after.

Good luck tomorrow.

08-07-2009, 11:29 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	Race 8 The Beverly D Three foreign horses make this race pretty tough to get warm and fuzzy. The 1 Alnadana has run a mile in 137 not bad by European standards but that was a year ago in Italy, so probably not the highest competition. Neither the 5 or the 8 have times that convert to competitive ones. Lately the 5 has run up to a mile; last year ran 12 and 10f races. the 8 Denomination is a Grade 1 winner this year at 10f so has to be respected. The locals: 3 - Points last raced at Woodbine in 133.3 with a 2.5 L comfort margin at the mile which was hardly compromised on the run in. Keep; 7 - Dynaforce has a 134.7 with the lead but in most of his races he fades after a mile, so he is out. 2 - Pure Clan and 4 - Black Mamba run about 135.4 and 135.3 respectively; both have good power moves - 7-4-1 and 4-3-1 with Black mamba running from 4th position making up 4.5 lengths while gaining a position. BM finished in 159.7. Pure Clan closed 1.6 and 0.8 lengths to finish in 200.5, so a slight nod goes to Black Mamba between these two. the 2-3-4 are kind of chalky, but if the 8 is the real deal it could help the pricing here. I think the odds on the 3 should rise, meaning that the 2 and 4 are likely to be even lower than the ML. Oh well. Not a lot of interest in this race except for perhaps a few pick three tickets with the races before and after. Good luck tomorrow.