Quote:
Originally Posted by tfm
Was looking at some data from TwinSpires yesterday and thought this might be of note. The data consists of a bit more than 400 races wagered, win bets and, in almost all cases, 1 or 2 number exacta or double wagers. This is over the course of 5 months (though, there was very limited play in half of them).
The following are the number of LOSING plays: successive plays without a winner. From highest down:
34
25
21
14
13
12
11
10 (4 separate instances)
9 ( 2 separate instances)
What's pretty amazing to me, is that I'm winning. And, if I could only control those days where I just go off form and over bet, I'd be fine. Over the course of these 400+ races, I've fluctuated from 40% (of starting bankroll) ahead, to 60% (of starting bankroll) behind (closest I came to busting out) and back again.
Don't know for sure, but I would suppose that streaks of this sort are probably common. Though, it does take a while to get comfortable with this.
This year was supposed to be a learning process for me and it's certainly been that.
|
It seems from your posts that you prefer your play to be on horses that are not among the betting choices. This being the case, you can expect longer losing streaks and greater swings in bankroll that are normal for that type of play. The fact that you are ahead speaks well of the concept of lower win percentage vs. longer odds and your ability to achieve a win percentage sufficient enough to currently be in that position.
You may or may not have read in one of my prior posts that I have a data base of over 4,000,000 horses or 500,000 races that I have accumulated over 12+ years. Having worked with this information for that period of time, I can tell you that 400 races are not a lot of races on which to make a judgment. I believe I mentioned in another post to you that I have seen 5,000 races on a particular type of play show a positive ROI only to see that ROI completely disappear in the next 5,000 races and ultimately, the type of play being tracked was a loser. It takes A LOT of races to prove the stability of an ROI.