Hard to play this horse if you're following any of the conventional methodologies. (Though I understand that some of the sheets people had him in their top 4).
He's not fast enough, first of all. Moreover, he needs a particular type of race in order to win. From a Fat Chart perspective, his last race (12F) is nothing special, as he's just one of 4 horses coming late in a race that collapsed late.
This horse is playable if you understand SETUPS, however. And, additionally, if you look at the entire race, rather than the individual figure/paceline/whatever. Given the way the race shaped up, with all the speed and pressers in the race, he figured to get the perfect setup. And, he does have one STANDOUT race in his history (LRL-2-14-09).
Those relying on the information of others, be it in terms of numbers or programs, or both, will never be able to pick horses like this. These types involve an overall knowledge/understanding of the game and come more readily to those with strong intuitions about it.
Thus, CJ, Classhandicapper (and all of the other CJ followers), Dave Schwartz, Jeff Platt (and his boys), etc. are all left with nothing else to do but bash POLY after a result like this. Or put up another thread about why REBATES are needed. If it doesn't make sense in their system of play, then there must be something wrong with the game/surface, whatever.
Not meant as a slight towards anyone. And, I've certainly given up trying to explain my method to people (as they just know better than me). But some must wonder how exactly I CONSISTENTLY pick these bombs.
All, of course, except the
dlivery dude, who very conveniently showed up to try and steal my thunder.
Needless to say, I'm DONE here.