Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

alydar_ David · 09-21-2009, 12:55 PM

Mike, when I started using The Sheets I was taught a horse generally runs its best effort about once every five races.

I was encouraged to bet on horses with horrible looking last races if they fit a favorable form pattern. The betting public is hung up on the last race and you can usually get a nice price if your horse's last race looks awful.

Using your example, if that super chalk horse had run that Third-Race-Back six weeks ago, and was a longshot today, it would fit the TRB pattern and be worth a bet if that third race back were competetive.

Here's something I posted eons ago:

One of my favorite Sheet plays is the "TRB," third race back angle.

Here's how it works. You look for a horse that ran well in his third race back, then ran poorly in his next race, then ran even worse in last race.

This can be a strong indicator of an explosive effort today *IF* [and this is a major *IF*] the third race back was run six weeks ago. It's even more powerful if that third race back was a career peak performance for a three year old.

These horses generally look terrible on paper. So, sometimes you can get lucrative odds on a horse that is ready to run the race of its life!

09-21-2009, 12:55 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Mike, when I started using The Sheets I was taught a horse generally runs its best effort about once every five races. I was encouraged to bet on horses with horrible looking last races if they fit a favorable form pattern. The betting public is hung up on the last race and you can usually get a nice price if your horse's last race looks awful. Using your example, if that super chalk horse had run that Third-Race-Back six weeks ago, and was a longshot today, it would fit the TRB pattern and be worth a bet if that third race back were competetive. Here's something I posted eons ago: One of my favorite Sheet plays is the "TRB," third race back angle. Here's how it works. You look for a horse that ran well in his third race back, then ran poorly in his next race, then ran even worse in last race. This can be a strong indicator of an explosive effort today IF [and this is a major IF] the third race back was run six weeks ago. It's even more powerful if that third race back was a career peak performance for a three year old. These horses generally look terrible on paper. So, sometimes you can get lucrative odds on a horse that is ready to run the race of its life!