Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Hi Guys...
I'm tired of seeing just Tim's philosophy tidbits here every time I log on.. 
So I'm throwing a handicapping question at you..
Sunday's 1ST Race at PHILLY had a 2/5 shot ,#1, in a 6 horse field after the 1a scratched...
I capped the race and came up with the 1 & 2 as contenders...any software program would have had the 1 as a top figure horse using line 2 and/or 3...but look at his last line...no excuse and and he was totally non existent in the race.
Horse #2 had, as I saw it , 2 even races vs good fractions and he was at 3-1.
Yes the 2 was the value horse( I bet him  ) but how important is the last race in handicapping?
Any opinions on what you would do even if the odds were the same.
mike |
Hi Mike,
1 - My opinion? If all I have to look at are these two horses, PASS THE RACE! My personal idea of "value" is not 3-1 on a horse that loves to run 2nd and there is no way I would be betting ANY 2/5 shot.
2 -
Does any body have stats that shows the # of winners after a poor race( a poor race is no speed , no moves , just lagging behind and losing lengths) Do you mean like the #2 horse that won the race? As well as the 1?
And, sure, I could give you "stats" on that, but they would be meaningless. (see below)
3 - It's easy to see the reason for the public making the 1 horse 2/5. They are always suckers for some horse dropping down out of the sky.
4 -
but look at his last line...no excuse and and he was totally non existent in the race. Here's how I see the last race. The horse ran 1/2 mile and packed it in. Even in that 1/2 mile, the horse did not run the type of race that might be considered normal as you compare it to prior route races in its' PP's. You could make the agrument that this was as a result of the horses being in a Optional Claiming Race ($14k) for NW2X rather than the NW1Y and/or NW2Y that is has been running against recently. But, that argument falls apart when you see that the horse was able to beat Optional Claimers (20k) for NW3X in December. The horse got about 3 months off after that win and hasn't been able to beat lesser horses since. When you couple all of this with the fact that the horse is now being dropped down to a $5,000 claiming race (no matter the condition) this really sends up a red flare as far as I am concerned. Nevertheless, I don't care if your are betting ON this horse or AGAINST this horse, you are doing either at your own peril. It just seems much easier to find another race.
5 -
but how important is the last race in handicapping? With all the variables that exist in horse racing, I think it is difficult to give a "simplified" answer. If your family doctor has 5 blood tests results for you over a period of time, which one would be most important to him? I'm not a doctor, but I would think, THE LAST ONE! It shows your most current condition. Although this is probably an unfair comparison, I think it makes the point. The last race is the most current piece of information about the horse. If the last race is a good race, at least you know the horse was in good enough condition to beat the field he was against that day. If the last race is a bad race, you have to make a determination as to "why" the horse ran bad. Sometimes there are "reasonable" excuses for a bad race and sometimes there isn't. Like I said, there is no "simplified" answer. In my opinion, the last race is the most important race, followed by 2 back, 3 back and so on. If you follow the horses PP's from the bottom up, you learn a lot about where the horse is today. It's the horses' history. It's the story about the horses racing career leading up to today. The story tells you "why" and "how" the horse ended up in today's race. And although there is more to handicapping than one race, the last race has to be the most important, be it for one reason or another.