Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
good idea Bill...will be useful to the " form cycle" cappers here..
as u can see this horse can run a few good races in a row...and after 2 bad ones he looked like he was coming back to form...he won and paid $5.60
.mike
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Hi Mike,
Although, as you said, the horse ran two BAD races I don't think the horse was "
coming back to form", I don't think it ever went "
out of form".
Let's start by looking at the 10th race back. The horse shows that it can
win AT CT AND AT 9 furlongs, but look at the class of the race, NW1X. What types of horses are most likely to be in this type of race? Well, if you have a horse that just broke its' maiden, the most logical choices for that horses next race are either NW2L or NW1X. At that point in this horses career, he had ALREADY won 5 races out of 16 starts, which is a little bit better than a 30% win rate. Those 5 wins consisted of a maiden win and claiming wins, otherwise it would not be eligible for this race. This is a much better horse than those horses that remain
"1 for something" while continuing to try and win that 2nd race. Appropriately, the horse went off as the favorite and won, for the 6th time in 17 races at that point.
So why didn't the horse win at CT at 9 furlongs in the race 3 back? Well, the class"SH" (Starter Handicap) presents a completely different challenge than NW1X. Now this horse is facing other horses with multiple wins.
Not as easy as NW1X. No doubt this horse went off the favorite in the race since it was coming off a win. Ok, so I give the horse a "legitimate" excuse for this race. In the race 2 back this horse was on the turf, perhaps for the first time. Obviously, the horse did not care for the surface. Another "legitimate" excuse. In the horses last race, a return to a surface it likes and in a race where it can be competitive resulted in a good race.
So was the horse really ever out of form? I don't think so.