Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet
Hi Richie,
The level of performance you demonstrate here is excellent and consistent with some of the other longitudinal studies you've posted. Re the problem of pool-sized bet limits, William Benter touched on this problem in his article in 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets' but didn't present the algorithm he was using to handle it. In fact, one of Benter's main reasons for playing the Hong Kong tracks was that the huge mutuel pools allowed him to place his average bet - 250k - without cutting into his odds. The important point he makes is that it's possible to reduce your bet size to extract the maximum gain without cutting into your odds.
So the logic behind what CJ is doing is correct. But it is still necessary to know the minimum pool size needed to make your max (or average, if you're flat-betting) bet. This is not a question I often deal with, since I mainly play only the big circuits for just this reason, but I am checking into it because I'm also interested. I will post a more accurate answer when I have it, but Benter's article implies the optimal max bet is a bit less than 1/2 of 1% of the total win pool. So clearly even $20 maybe too big at some small tracks.
My general response to this problem would be to work from the bottom up. With a $20 flat bet, I would guess that many tracks are still playable. Play the high-volume multi-track approach, and as your bank grows, start dropping tracks whose average mutuel pools are too small too sustain your growing bet size. Eventually, of course, you will only be able to bet into the biggest pools. Even without increasing your bet-size the scheme you've laid out implies an annual return of 900% - not too shabby. So, the progress from small tracks to large would be fairly quick.
One thing I'm not clear about - you mention an 18% ROI for the betting sequence in question, but only 5% when calculating your betting scheme. Maybe you just wanted to be cautious, as far as betting goes, but do you think an ROI of 18% or something close to it is unsustainable? I think if you extended the sample to 1k or 2k races you would find it within the range of possibility.
In any case, good luck with this. If your're interested in checking the Benter article, it's included in William Ziemba's 'Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets', which is available in preview at Google Books.
Cheers,
B Jennet
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Thanks "B" for the info on Bentner and betting. I will definitely check out the Google preview.
The 5% is just complete cautious guesstimate.
Also to be honest this is completely boring and monotonous man. I have done no and I me no handicapping contenders/lines/wagers/matching etc. The horse is either in top 3 Bl/Bl after hiding to 5 1 at a time from the bottom of Bl/Bl up (super easy to program no Ted?
) or he's not.
My school stuff gets real intense starting 11/7 for 3 months so who knows. We will see what happens.
Very best to you "B" and stay cool