Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP
Day 9 this month of auto template was a wild one for sure. 
Night tracks paid off and the day tracks were dominated by losing value bets.
all in all looks to be a rebate players dream again (breaking even with lots of bets right?)
the races from yesterday in total
FIFTY horses bet |
Hi Richie,
I don't know if you realize this, and I see Ted is kind of pointing you to it, but this rate of bankroll growth is spectacular. Because, in absolute terms, you're betting small amounts it may not strike you, but think of yourself as the average blackjack or poker pro with a 100k bank. In nine days of play, your autopaceline model has made 50% of your bank - 50k - plus rebate. In these situations (which do happen, but are rare, because the edge is much smaller), everybody's popping corks. Your autopaceline model is achieving a 20% ROI - don't forget that William Benter was making 35 million a year with a 28% ROI - throw in the level of rebate you'll be able to get at higher betting totals, and you're just about there.
So, if you have a day like this, where you basically flatline, just ignore it and, like a poker or blackjack player, think in terms of the long run. Blackjack players think of the long run because they know that given variance (luck), anything can happen in the short term, but in the long run, they have the edge. I know a guy, an excellent BJ player, who flatlined not for a day, but for six months a couple of years ago - fortunately he covers all his expenses in advance. In the next month, he made 100k - his EV (expected value) for the year. That's one of the big advantages of making many bets like this, you're getting into the long run more quickly, letting the Law of Large numbers work for you in smoothing out your variance.
Keep it rolling.
Cheers,
B Jennet