Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP
Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!
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A few observations - yesterday gave back not the whole month, but only the previous 4 betting sessions: you're back to where you were between days 4 and 5.
On Oct 16 and 26, from betting only 15 races you made $42.50 and $33 profit respectively, more than (and close to) what you lost in this latest day. With respect to what BJennet said in his last post, and the ups and downs you show in these records - with this particular contender and bet selection strategy perhaps this
is the volitility you should expect. With only 277 bets, there's no evidence so far to know whether the bankroll growth is still not on an
upward trajectory. And with the volitility, you also don't know whether this $42 loss won't be followed by another $42 (or more) profit.
I think it is too soon to say that this particular method is not sound.
It is pretty clear, though (correct me if I'm wrong) that this method exacts a certain
emotional toll, what to speak a lot of ball busting work. I don't want to minimize that at all - the emotional inputs to the method are as important as paceline selection, contender elimination and bet strategies.
There will be volitility - period. When the bankroll is 5 times what it is now and you can actually bet 1% of it on each race, one day you will lose 10% or 15% of it. Pre-accept that now, and also accept that the day you hit 3 boxcars and increase the bankroll by 33%, a portion of that increase is merely insurance for 3 days later when you will give back half that gain.
If you can take a step back, look at your records, see the direction the exercise is heading (from a birds-eye view) and perhaps see an opportunity to
emotionally de-sensitize yourself to the volitility - perhaps this will be as valuable a learning for you as the handicapping part.
Sure, you can also study and refine the selection and betting strategies (3 horses per race sometimes? - no place bets?), but for the pile of work you've done so far this month to have its greatest value, and to prove that it can be done with $20 and $50+ bet units, I hope I can encourage you to give it at least another 10 betting sessions, say 500 bets total.
The minute I can offer you in RDSS a race identification filter and/or a paceline selection strategy, or a bet file upload tool to an ADW conditional wagering queue, I'll get on the phone, amico!
Take a breather, dress up as some Italian guy from Westchester, and play some tricks tonight! Study what you've got here, but double-check to make sure some old-style emotional patterns aren't robbing you of the rewards of your research so far, or of future payoffs.
Tu salute!
Ted