Example of detailed recordkeeping. All selections are one per race, all wagers are flat bets to win, with the exception of races indicated (all of which, by the way, lost!). It would be easy to make a case for place betting, with a number of double digit place mutuels on the top selections. However, because it is a flat win bet model, it only considers selections for win position.
The point of all this is that outliers are strictly controlled. My dataset interquartile range mean (the average mutuel of the middle two quarters of the sample, excluding the lowest and highest quarters) is roughly $8.00. That means that any mutuel over $12.00 is automatically truncated to $12.00 (one and a half times the mean of the interquartile range--basic statistics).
The result is a much more coherent, predictive model. Of all the techniques I use to develop models, that is the most basic, and anyone developing detailed records would do well to make a serious attempt to control for outliers to avoid distortion by aberrant data points.
Good Luck
All selections were posted on
www.paceadvantage.com Selections forum the night before the races. All can be verified. Results are normal for our data models, and results for thoroughbreds and harness are similar.
March 20 Results (13 wagers)
#1 Luanda won at RT at $3.00
#4 Czarbarz won at RT at $5.40
#6 RocknRoll Roxie won at RT at $7.20
#2 Kiki Koko won at BM at $13.20 [truncated to 12.00]
#3 Mulberry Gus won at SL at $3.00
#8 Easy Brenton won at VL at $14.80 [truncated to 12.00]
#3 Kb's Speed Chip won at VL at $9.00
#7 Bget Jim Jim Jim won at VL at $11.40
Current Status +$27.60 (model)
Actual Return $268.00 - 218 = +$50.00
March 21 Selections
Bluffs Run - Matinee
Race 5 - #5 Thisbee's Gotyou
Race 7 - #5 B's Knott Head
Race 12 - #4 Hilan Dodge
Birmingham - Evening
Race 9 - #7 Tnt Show Em
Race 11 - #8 San Tan Chev
Southland - Evening
Race 11 - #4 Tnt Vegas
Previous Results
March 1 - 5 Races -$10
March 2 - 5 Races +$ 3.80 (8.00 + 5.80 - 10)
March 3 - 5 Races -$ 4.40 (5.60 - 10)
March 4 - 7 Races +$ 7.20 (8.20 + 7.80 + 5.20 - 14)
March 6 - 2 Races -$ 4.00
March 7 - 4 Races +$ 6.20 (8.00 + 6.20 - 8)
March 8 - 6 Races +$ 7.00 (33.60 [12.00] + 7.00 - 12)
March 9 - 5 Races 0$ (10.00 - 10.00)
March 10 - 5 Races +$ 2.00 (14.00 [12.00] - 10.00)
March 11 - 6 Races -$ 2.60 (5.00 + 4.40 - 12.00)
March 12 - 1 Race [no race]
March 13 - 3 Races +$ 6.00 (16.00 [12.00] - 6.00)
March 14 - 6 Races -$ 1.80 (6.40 + 3.80 - 12.00)
March 15 - 11 Races -$10.00 (16.40 [12.00] - 22.00)
March 16 - 7 Races -$ 6.40 (4.40 + 3.20 - 14.00)
March 17 - 10 Races +$ 5.60 (14.00 [12.00] + 5.40 + 8.20 - 20.00)
March 18 - 5 Races -$ 5.60 (4.40 - 10)
March 19 - 2 Races[2]-$ 8.00
March 20 - 13 Races[2]+$27.60 (3.00 + 5.40 + 7.20 + 13.20 [12.00]
+ 3.00 + 14.80 [12.00] + 9.00 + 11.40 - 26.00)
All selections based on positive expectation model; minimum
33% win percentage, minimum 125% ROI over time.
Sample Selections:
for Greyhounds March 1 - March 31
for Thoroughbreds and Harness April 1 - 15
Good Luck