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Hi Traynor,
I have a question for you. Would it not be more accurate to truncate the actual final odd(s). Eg: 4.7 or 3.6. since your model(s) are reliant on after the event entry and slightly raise your ceiling +-(% ) to incoporate additional breakage that may be received, but not expected.
I can appreciate your sound approach, but I have a problem in my model with what to do with unexpected breakage, which at times can represent upwards of +10 to15% of a return which is unexpected.
Your view with regards to breakage would be appreciated.
bobby
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