Quote:
Originally Posted by J2EEDeveloper
As I said before, I have had a lot of good results using the Sartin Methodology and pencil-and-paper methods. As BJennet pointed out, there is a finite limit to the number of bettable races that can be located and bet successfully. Paper trials excepted, betting in the real world requires either a large number of bettable races or large bets on a small number of bettable to provide a return commensurate with the effort involved.
Thirty bets a week at $50 is $1500. A 15% (VERY good) POI means a net take of $225 a week--which is peanuts considering the time I have to spend locating and analyzing those 30 races. If I stick to major tracks, I can up the bet considerably without affecting the mutuel pools too much, and betting $200 a race brings my expected return up to $900 a week. Better, but still a long way from giving up my day job.
However, if I can model the races competently, and model the process of selecting contenders and pace lines, then create algorithms to implement that information, the time invested decreases, with little or no loss in accuracy. Because the decision-making process is structured, errors are eliminated, which usually increases accuracy. In the bootstrapping process of modeling expert selections, the automated process is usually able to substantially increase the accuracy of the "expert's" selections by eliminating errors and structuring an unstructured process.
I would really like to use RDSS. I like the interface, I like the readouts, and I like the underlying processes. About my only real complaint is the time involved; I am much more comfortable with "full-time" handicapping in which I (normally) bet 40 to 50 races a day at a dozen or more tracks. Unfortunately, my all-too-infrequent vacations seem to be the only times I am able to handicap races at that level competently, and then only by specializing in specific class levels and distances. I hoped RDSS would enable me to do the same thing by automating the most time-consuming processes--contender selection and pace line selection.
There is nothing "wrong" with RDSS software, other than that it is not a significant improvement--for me--on what I can accomplish with a stack of TrackMaster past performances, a yellow hi-liter, a red flair pen, and a graphing calculator (I don't use the graphing capability for handicapping, but the TI-94 is easy to program with the limited number of calculations I use in handicapping.) I also have stacks of nicely marked PPs showing pace lines, contenders, and notes to myself about why I chose what, so I can continually improve my own processes and discover my own analytical deficiencies. Just like Doc Sartin told me to do.
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J2EED,
This post makes clear that you have a fairly good grasp of the reality of what you're up against. You're correct in your assessment that most of the people who post who here are social and recreational players rather than professionals, and I think that's always been the case with the Methodology. I think that few have career aspirations. And Doc himself perhaps misled clients into believing that this was a possibility, although a couple of the more talented practioners of the Methodology, such as Dick Schmidt and Tom Brohamer, played professionally for a time. But the very important point you bring up, and which their careers underline, is that it's really impossible to think about making a living from the game betting less than $200 a race, which was their average bet size - and remember, this was the '80s.
Re your point about increasing volume - certainly this is the way to go - but in that direction, one runs into the problem of bumping up against pool limits at smaller tracks, a problem we've discussed here. With a $200 bet at smaller tracks you would be seriously cutting your odds, so the question remains as to how many tracks have pools large enough to handle these bets. This is actually a problem I'm getting some consultation on now, and will post about as I learn more.
However, I think you're generally headed in the right direction, and I wish you luck.
Cheers,
B Jennet