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breakage
Breakage is not a consideration, because we only use real world odds, rather than morning lines or projected odds. There is never a conflict, because what you get at the mutuel window is what you get.
Similarly, because we use actual mutuels, we are able to build more accurate data models, that in turn are based on results in the real world. In a given sample of races, there will be an accurate interquartile range mean that is used to eliminate outliers in subsequent races within the same sample group.
The simple average--with or without breakage--is extremely misleading. Using a simple average tends to distort reality enough to make the handicapping of most racing fans "off" far enough to eliminate most of the available profit.
The point is that a very minor step--correcting for outliers--will enable most fans to make a quantum leap in profit. Or conversely, convince them to stop betting an aberrant "model" that is distorted by one or more unusual payoffs.
Good Luck
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