Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Detailed Recordkeeping / Perfect Example of Why We Need to do this

traynor · 03-21-2006, 11:45 AM

Another consideration in the breakage area is that the illustration given for greyhounds is not the model itself--it is an illustration of how we create models. SImilarly, the [12.00] truncating point is close, but not exact. That is, our algorithms keep a detailed record of results within each data layer, and re-calculate the mean of the interquartile range dynamically. Subsequent mutuels are truncated in accord with the actual results, rather than projected results.

That re-calculation may change the overall ROI a bit, or the expected win percentage a bit, but those areas are never exact, anyway. There is no "statistical pressure" that "forces" reality to conform to a model, regardless of how carefully crafted that model may be. The key point is that the more accurate the model is, the better the abilty of that model to predict future events.
Good Luck

03-21-2006, 11:45 AM	#5
traynor AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 13	breakage Another consideration in the breakage area is that the illustration given for greyhounds is not the model itself--it is an illustration of how we create models. SImilarly, the [12.00] truncating point is close, but not exact. That is, our algorithms keep a detailed record of results within each data layer, and re-calculate the mean of the interquartile range dynamically. Subsequent mutuels are truncated in accord with the actual results, rather than projected results. That re-calculation may change the overall ROI a bit, or the expected win percentage a bit, but those areas are never exact, anyway. There is no "statistical pressure" that "forces" reality to conform to a model, regardless of how carefully crafted that model may be. The key point is that the more accurate the model is, the better the abilty of that model to predict future events. Good Luck