Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 12-15-2009, 10:09 PM

This race also shows the power of TPR (Total Pace Rating) numbers as it relates to contenders and how close they need to be to the top in order to contend for a win.

Add back the beaten lengths to Daniella Roth's total pace ratings and see that horses that beat her consistently ran TPR's in the range of 174.5 to 176.5 and that her efforts in the 171.5-172.5 range were not good enough to beat horses that had 3-4 total pace point advantages.

In "Pace Makes the Race", and probably elsewhere, the authors stated that only horses within 5 points of the top TPR should be considered for win. It also said that the winner most often (not always) came from the top three TPR.

This horse, Daniella Roth, had to be within one or two points of the top horse to actually win this race.

12-15-2009, 10:09 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	The Power of TPR numbers This race also shows the power of TPR (Total Pace Rating) numbers as it relates to contenders and how close they need to be to the top in order to contend for a win. Add back the beaten lengths to Daniella Roth's total pace ratings and see that horses that beat her consistently ran TPR's in the range of 174.5 to 176.5 and that her efforts in the 171.5-172.5 range were not good enough to beat horses that had 3-4 total pace point advantages. In "Pace Makes the Race", and probably elsewhere, the authors stated that only horses within 5 points of the top TPR should be considered for win. It also said that the winner most often (not always) came from the top three TPR. This horse, Daniella Roth, had to be within one or two points of the top horse to actually win this race.