[PeteC]

Hi Mike:

I went through the race you posted and honestly I did not get a strong feeling. I usually go through pretty quickly and move on unless I feel one horse strongly stands out as a spot play. However, I did go through the rest of the Hollywood card and found three spot plays. I’ll lay out what I saw, as someone trying to implement what I’ve learned from this site:


(I've attached pp's for R1 and R6, but couldn't do R3, if someone else has access that would be much appreciated)

Race 1: 8.5 F

I saw this race as a stand-out sprint to route spot play. The #5 Gumption, goes into a route off of a 109.4 sprint last time. He was 5th at the first call and improved position and beaten lengths at each subsequent call. That 109.4 stands out to me compared to the times of the routers at the 6f mark.

Race 3: 10 F turf

Here I start out with the running styles, grouping them into “E” or “OTE”, or both for some horses:

#1 He’s been a presser lately, although a while back he went to the lead and almost held on. Still, I’ll put him OTE.
#2, 3, 5, and 6 Definite OTE
#4 Early: Fought for 2 calls through a very fast pace 46.2 110 and then opened up a 2 length lead at the stretch call after that fight.

I’m feeling this race is going to be won early, but I check the POR with the other horses:

#1 :He’s pressed that 46.2 110 or similar and either won or been close. Definite contender.

#2 Has faced that pace in last 2 – closed a bit, but not enough impact for me, especially without anticipated fighting today.

#3 has closed into today’s pace before and even beat #4 in the tandem last time, but with a more favorable early scenario today for early, I predict the tandem will reverse.

#5 closed in last race to be 2nd in the tandem race, but again, I’m feeling the reversal today with the 2-call fighter not facing the same pressure.

#6 faced today’s pace 2 back, made a strong middle move but then faded. OUT

So, I’m left with the 1 and 4, but I love playing these multi-call fighters in more favorable scenarios to reverse the tandem. I’ll take #4.

Race 6: 8.5 Turf

#1 Early- I feel like he’ll go as fast as someone wants to go with him early.
#3 Mostly a presser, but see him pushing the early guys like in his last race.
#10 Another major early player, and he needs a clear early lead to win.

#6 won last race wtw, fighting through a slow pace. However, looking down at other lines, he can still do well running ote vs a faster pace.
My eye goes down to line 9: 46.1 110.1 4-14 5-8 5-2 3-1.2

#2, 4, 5, 7 , 8, 12 OTE

I will project the pace to be 46 1 or 2 and 110, based on the last race of #3 and #10. I’m feeling that this race will be won OTE, with a horse from 4th position or further.

#2 faced today’s pace in last 2 and did nothing.
#3 has run ote vs today’s pace but I feel he’s going to get caught up in the fight with the 1 and 10.
#4 faced today’s pace 9 back and didn’t do so well.
#5 never done well vs this pace.
#6 won his last race and faced today’s pace 9 back and made a strong power move to be a close third. Definite contender.
#7 8-back he made a string power move and won vs similar pace, but 3 back only made mild impact. Borderline contender.
#8 mild impact at best vs this pace.
#9 don’t know what to make of this horse. Out
#12 not much to recommend vs this pace.

So I’m left with #7 and #6 but I strongly prefer the 6. I have more confidence going deep for his power line based on his last race win.

Anyway, there’s how I go through the races. Any thoughts or varying opinions welcomed. It’s really cool and helpful to read all the varying approaches.

Thanks to Mike for starting the thread and everyone who's sharing!