Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D
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And, of course, there is the end of that quote you used by Dave:
"Of course, Howard also said that 90% of the time you should use one of the last two lines, and I totally disagree with that. That is not really "pace" handicapping; that's "recent form" handicapping because the big recent race will almost always be your play(s)."
Just my opinion.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
So, in order to win, we start with:
1. Pick the right contenders.
2. Pick the right pacelines.
3. Interpret the readouts (i.e. model) correctly.
Followed by:
1. choose one of the last two lines 90% of the time (Doc)
2. choose some other line further back (Dave)
3. the same old problem of, which is correct?
In the library you can find Doc's guidelines to line selection in the Paceline Manual in the Follow Up section. I find it to be a fairly straight forward approach.
They are NOT "best of last three distance/surface". What they are is: "last line unless there is a 'valid' reason to go back farther". Since Doc appeared to be a stickler for using the last line, I can only assume that his use of the word "farther" means the second line back, not 9 lines back!
In addition, it also does not say to use a sprint line in a route race or a route line in a sprint race. In fact, "wrong distance" is a "valid" reason for going back. Although Doc does not say it, I can only assume that if he did not find a pace line using the guidelines he set forth, the horse was eliminated. I did not see in these guidelines where he suggests the manufacturing of a pace line.
It is a matter of record that the first and second choices win approximately 58% of all races every year. It doesn't matter if you choose line-1 or line-10, that is the way it is going to end up at the end of the year. And yet everybody, including Dave, is going back for lines in order to "catch" a price horse. Believe it or not, using Doc's guidelines, the prices will come to you! You can't
make a price horse win just because you chased after it! They win, when they win,
not when
you want them to win! If you don't believe it, why not give "Doc" a shot? Follow his guidelines for a while ( not a day or week) and see what happens. You might be pleasantly surprised!