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Old 12-27-2009, 08:32 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,500
This was no pig!

You ever hear the phrase, "This horse needs a pace to run at.."? Well, Evita Argentina epitomizes a horse in need of a pace, most of the time.

The past performances via the LPR and TPR numbers show that this horse has one of the highest and most consistent closing fractions. Her very late running style finds her running no better than sixth at the 2nd call (in a 6 horse race, what else). You can look at the races won and in 2 of the 3 there was a sub 45 half mile. Her early placement usually results in an 86 or so EPR and her normal 95-96 close makes her a force for a check most of the time. Note in the slowly run early part of the SA 7f win her early was 79 which allowed a 99.9 close.

Yesterday it looked like two front runners would duel themselves into submission and set it up for Evita. So when you find a horse that repeats its closing fractions, the task becomes to determine if the pace will allow the horse to exert its dominance and win.
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