Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet
Hi J2,
The late Guy Wadsworth, who wrote most of the late Sartin software told me that 90% of all winners were in the top five of APV, in all classes, and although he presented no validating charts or evidence, this seems accurate to me as a ballpark figure.
Just anecdotally, I've found APV to be most useful at the high end, above GR. II, and the low end, below 10k - not incidentally the areas in which the various pace numbers, including TE, tend to be less useful. It's not unusual to get a stakes race exacta by simply boxing the top three APVs. BTW, this is true for winners only sub-10k, not place and show necessarily.
The main problem with APV, as FTL's useful chart indicates, is that it's a very obvious and overbet factor, with subsequently no wager value under most circumstances. As far as its utility in eliminating 'false positive' TEs with cheap speed, it's not as accurate as simply eyeballing the PPs. In general TE 'false positives' are more likely to fall into the category of 'herd' horses - those that generally run well but prefer to lose. You can recognize them by the preponderance of yellow and green in their PP finish positions.
Best of luck.
Cheers,
B Jennet
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I agree in general, with an added note. A drop in class to win is fairly common, especially at minor tracks. Despite a good race that makes it seem the entry is in top form, when it returns to its "normal" class level (where it is relatively safe from hostile claims because it is overvalued) it tends to run more poorly than its numbers from the lower race might indicate.
Despite its many failings, the APV can still be used as an indicator--even if what is indicated is a the necessity of taking a closer look at the PPs.