Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 02-01-2010, 03:21 PM

Ernie, I hope you don't mind - I gathered your 4 Tote Xray examples into this one Thread, since they're all on the same topic, different illustrations on a theme.

Thanks for posting these! I think a point worth studying is that, at minimum, Tote Xray confidence can suggest a horse which at least belongs in exotic calculations where you may otherwise have eliminated it on every other readout, or where form is too old to trust by your normal metrics. Whether they're a Win candidate is a separate issue, but perhaps, like a high previous (e.g. early last year) CR ranking, perhaps consider this as an excuse to evaluate numbers from further back. Depending on price offered.

I might caution, both pro and con, that if the Tx rank also co-relates with the Top 4 Win Odds (even better if drifting above say 5-1) then that's reinforcement. On the other hand, if a Tx value comes from fairly small amounts of money in the Win or Place pools, and is out of whack completely with Win Odds, consider that there may be too little pool info to go on (unless the all Pool sizes are fairly small...).

Good work - hope to hear you cash on some of these!

Ted

02-01-2010, 03:21 PM	#5
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,242	Ernie's Tote Xray Examples Ernie, I hope you don't mind - I gathered your 4 Tote Xray examples into this one Thread, since they're all on the same topic, different illustrations on a theme. Thanks for posting these! I think a point worth studying is that, at minimum, Tote Xray confidence can suggest a horse which at least belongs in exotic calculations where you may otherwise have eliminated it on every other readout, or where form is too old to trust by your normal metrics. Whether they're a Win candidate is a separate issue, but perhaps, like a high previous (e.g. early last year) CR ranking, perhaps consider this as an excuse to evaluate numbers from further back. Depending on price offered. I might caution, both pro and con, that if the Tx rank also co-relates with the Top 4 Win Odds (even better if drifting above say 5-1) then that's reinforcement. On the other hand, if a Tx value comes from fairly small amounts of money in the Win or Place pools, and is out of whack completely with Win Odds, consider that there may be too little pool info to go on (unless the all Pool sizes are fairly small...). Good work - hope to hear you cash on some of these! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 02-01-2010 at 03:35 PM.