[Ted Craven]

Derek,

Sometimes just a few decisions can make the difference between a profitable cycle of races and a negative one, and thus between growing confidence and happiness and disappointment or worse. Just one race passed, just one race played, just going back to get a better past line when the horse failed last race but with good excuse; or sometimes just a bad beat: good analysis, good decision, beat by a nose, or DQ'd. Just a few decisions: which race(s) to work, which lines to represent the horses, play or pass the race, which bets (if any) to make. Perhaps because right now you must focus on night tracks, you feel inclined to bet more races than are truly bettable, in order to justify the time and effort analysing them. Perhaps some other decisions are not serving you.

If others are saying they profit from (presumably selective) working/betting of these same tracks and races, and some of them using your same tools, then you could see this as encouraging as you surely have the same capacity as them. Perhaps they have been working these tracks (or tools) longer. Perhaps they have decision models of effective factors for these tracks (e.g. MNR, DED, PEN, CT) which point to non-contenders or to contenders. Perhaps they concentrate on certain races only, likely to be more subject to successful analysis or better mutuels or both (e.g. routes for older horses).

So, may I ask, do you have some decision models for the tracks you play from the races you have worked so far? Do they point to certain factors which identify contenders, or - as important - identify those horses who most likely cannot win today?

May I ask: either, can you post a 20 race cycle of races which you worked and either bet or passed (and the win/Loss for each race), along with the screenshots of your line selections and final contenders. (I know you have diligently posted BL/BL screens of evenings of races you've worked.) Race results (including charts) are public so anyone can see the result. Perhaps folks will comment on your line selection, or race selection, or contender selection, or wager decision (including play/pass).

Or, send the same to me, by email, and I will look at it and ask some others privately to study the same and comment. If you have kept some decision models of factors, or a track model of what winners are doing at the tracks you play, could you send that too, please.

Also, if anyone is interested in privately in reviewing these submissions and commenting, please contact me or post a message here. I'd like to help out a brother, if he is interested!

Perhaps now is the time to take a short break, check your records or update them, review further your past analysis and wagering decisions, work collections of past races to see what consistent decisions you could have made differently to get winners you missed, or to skip races with too low payoff, etc - perhaps with reference to a growing collection of decision models. Sounds like a lot of work, I know! It's the most difficult game.

While it is perfectly natural to feel it, please don't feel so temporarily discouraged that you stop pushing through the current fog of decision uncertainty to the clarity which has to come next. Unless you have stumbled upon the precise collection of tracks and races which is resistant to analysis and exploitation by these tools, you may be able to take heart that with some more fine tuning of both analysis, wager decisions, record-keeping and self-talk, you will be able to soon achieve some of the racing goals you've set yourself.

Looking forward...

cheers,

Ted