[Ted Craven]

Derek,

FWIW, my own personal ruleset for pacelines is that, excepting Stakes calibre horses, I will not accept for win position a horse off over 180 days (or so). Sure, I'll lose to some low price or very long price winners by this, but it saves my bacon much more than not. Of course, consider these for in-the-money, though. If a horse is returning and shows some life, e.g. alert at the break, runs contentiously through the 2nd call, even better if against a healthy Pace of Race, then consider relaxing your best of last 3 comparable rule a bit and seek evidence of its innate ability when fit from lines further back, (of course it may not be fit to that same exact degree now - a form cycle will never exactly repeat) but anyway, we're seeking to project form, not duplicate it. A good incremental effort on the return off a layoff is an encouraging sign, even if the horse eases off past the 2nd call (and thus looks bad in Total Energy or F3 dependent measurements). Consider ranking such returners off the 2nd call velocity, or Segments Screen 2nd call, or E/ep versus other likely candidates. If they rank well that far, go back and find a better Total Energy older line for them - you'll always get a better price by looking further back (i.e. public will focus on recent effort).

Just one approach, but I like it, as regards layoff horses and a paceline selection strategy.

Glad to hear you bounced back last night - congratulations!

Ted