[barb craven]

Paradigm Shift (Followup # 82)


Winning. Winning is what the Methodology is all about; making us winners at the track to make us winners in life. The goal of the Methodology is to allow us to let go of all that holds back our creativity and thought in becoming winners. The Follow Up is replete with articles to help us achieve that winning level. There are always letters from clients who have overcome many of the BLOCKS which they have encountered, and have become winners.

Lately one of the currently common words we hear and read is PARADIGM. "What is a paradigm?", is one of the questions I have been asked most often in recent months. Let us look at what is meant when we hear about paradigms and a paradigm shift and how this evolution can and does affect our bottom line. It is how those who are not yet winning can see how they are held back by the handicapping paradigm.

A paradigm is "the philosophical and theoretical framework of a school or discipline within which theories, laws and generalizations and the experiments performed IN SUPPORT OF THEM are formulated" (Webster's 10th edition collegiate dictionary, emphasis mine). In this definition we see that a paradigm is self-perpetuating. It does not allow experiments or generalizations that are not supportive of the dominant paradigm of the time. We can see examples of this throughout history.

Here is one instance: Remember Galileo?? Galileo was the one who put forth the idea with experimental evidence that the earth was not the center of our solar system, that indeed the Earth revolved around the Sun. This was so contrary to the accepted paradigm that Galileo risked being burned at the stake if he did not recant his theory. He did recant and lived to see many more days. We further know that within a few years this 'controversial' thought was accepted as truth. This caused a shift in the paradigm of the time and of the scientific discipline in general. It threatened anyone with a vested interest in the old paradigm. It certainly threatened those who were supposedly the most learned of the day. A second more recent example is the quartz watch. It was invented by those Master watch makers, the Swiss. However, the new idea was so different these Swiss did not accept the concept. They did take the quartz watch to a trade show where it was seen by some Japanese watchmakers. We know what happened after that. Japan became the dominating watchmaking country in the world utilizing a new paradigm in watchmaking.


Anchors was my topic in the most recent issue of the Follow Up (#81). These anchors that keep us rooted in the vestiges of the past whether they are from" oldstream" contexts or from the older Methodology itself are the framework of the old paradigm. We know that the Doc continues looking for and finding ways to keep the Methodology moving forward. It is indeed a revolution of thought, ideas, and use of new technology. What has really occurred is that the Doc has ushered us into a new paradigm. It is a shift from the old thought patterns to the new thought patterns and the acceptance of the shift does not come easily.


The 'horsey' paradigm-what is it?? This is the dominant handicapping thought of our day. It has been the dominant thought for quite some time. One of the earliest 'absolutes' in handicapping was the use of speed figures, especially final time. Today this prevailing thought still dominates the mainstream paradigm in contender selection. Visual perception of a horse's running style, second call times, man made 'class' distinctions, closest to the pace, recency, yada, yada,
yada... these are other manifestations of the old 'horsey' paradigm. One of the things that happens,when one accepts an overriding premise, i.e. final time, as THE factor is that any other aspects are slanted to make the dominant thought the winning one. This prevents new ideas from coming to the surface.

Even the concept of pace was not accepted as having any credence untii recent years and even now most pundits regard pace as merely the second call time: Of course if one is making their living from selling systems, selections, and publications why would they want to change? If you actually sell a system that really wins you may have lost an on-going, paying customer. Sooooo let's maintain the status quo seems to be the order of the day. Keep those customers coming back. Sell those purloinedl over-used formulas, repeated 'rules and angles', speed calculators, and racing ana!yzers. One horse betting. Now there is a rear cornerstone of the mainstream paradigm. It has nothing to do with contender selection only in how one actually invests their money. When people make other types of investments whether it be stocks, coins, or vintage wine they do not invest in only one stock, one coin, or one bottle of wine. Why should profitcappers be any different? We shouldn't; invest to profit, not merely to speculate. We know how beneficial two horse betting can be, and it takes us out of that ego-driven need to be able to pick THE winner. Remember, the goal is to be a winner, a winner of money not of races or fans.

Using the very highly visible and thus perhaps easier to remember races of the Triple Crown it can again be illustrated how the multiple horse investment pays off. Unlike recent years this year the programs showed the favorite had a good chance to win. We know he did win. My win tickets in the Derby were not winners; they were on Aptitude and Impeachment because I was not willing to accept the short price on the favorite. However, using the SAME two horse betting guide in the Preakness, again not accepting the short price on the favorite, I collect the $14.40 mutuel on the winner, Red Bullet. For the first two legs then the minimum investment for win tickets is $8. The return is $14.40. The net profit is $6.60 or 80%. This is a good example of investing on two horses per race to make a profit not on just one race but on all the races.

The old paradigm dominates the publications and the minds of almost all the people around us. We see the same bylines, tip sheets and horseplayers wherever we go to profitcap. Being locked into assumptions based on an old paradigm prevents us from evolving into the wagercapper you want to be. By changing our assumptions and dropping the old ones we begin to alter the decisions we are making. We begin then using the new paradigm. This shift allows us to wagercap beyond oldstream conventions. It allows all of us to be winners.

Since the evolution of the Synthesis program Dr. Sartin has truly taken the Methodology not only into a revolution but into a new paradigm. It is up to us, individually, to not be saddled by excuses and feeble limitations. We are at the forefront of this phenominal shift. Ride it to a new you, a winning you.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder .... work the plan, be profitable. 'Till next time.