Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lsosa54 · 03-28-2010, 03:59 PM

I think there are 3 horses, possibly 4, fast enough to win this race. Unless Classical is a dirt freak and loves the dirt 1 1/8, I don't think he's fast enough to win.

I do agree with the other 3. Based on the total energies, no adjustment is needed in EXDC/Thoromation.

The EXDC screen has Conveyance winning by half a length over Nacho. The SP screen has Tempted winning by about 2 lengths over Nacho. The Thoromation screen has Nacho nosing out Conveyance, who is the Designated Place Horse.

This tells me Conveyance may not be a lock, but in my experience, undefeated horses are tough to bet against, no matter the readings.

A final twist would be Endorsement. IF he can improve off his maiden win, which his last 2 workouts suggest he might, if the pace goes too fast or the track plays to the late side, she could take it all. If she tries to go early here, she's done. I'm hoping Classical stretching out pushes Conveyance early.

Not my kind of betting race as I prefer older horses and less unknowns (track, distance, surface, etc.), but I might put a small bet on Endorsement if I can get a minimum 8-1 . I don't think I'll get it on the other contenders

03-28-2010, 03:59 PM	#4
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	I think there are 3 horses, possibly 4, fast enough to win this race. Unless Classical is a dirt freak and loves the dirt 1 1/8, I don't think he's fast enough to win. I do agree with the other 3. Based on the total energies, no adjustment is needed in EXDC/Thoromation. The EXDC screen has Conveyance winning by half a length over Nacho. The SP screen has Tempted winning by about 2 lengths over Nacho. The Thoromation screen has Nacho nosing out Conveyance, who is the Designated Place Horse. This tells me Conveyance may not be a lock, but in my experience, undefeated horses are tough to bet against, no matter the readings. A final twist would be Endorsement. IF he can improve off his maiden win, which his last 2 workouts suggest he might, if the pace goes too fast or the track plays to the late side, she could take it all. If she tries to go early here, she's done. I'm hoping Classical stretching out pushes Conveyance early. Not my kind of betting race as I prefer older horses and less unknowns (track, distance, surface, etc.), but I might put a small bet on Endorsement if I can get a minimum 8-1 . I don't think I'll get it on the other contenders Last edited by lsosa54; 03-28-2010 at 04:02 PM.