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Just another reinforcement for you of "know thy track". Got home a bit early today and 'capped the last few at SA. I mentioned on another post where the SA turf mile has been running early all meet.
Lets look at the 6th today. My contender selection narrowed it down to 3 horses fast enough recently to win today.
3-Changing - been running high 80's on the poly so I'm comfortable going 8 back to the turf mile on this track with a 90 SR.
7-Joshua's Dream - been running 90's on the poly but no turf race to choose from. No reason for me not to give him his last.
8-Rummysecret War - just ran a 93 in a poly sprint so I'm ok going 3 back to the 1 1/8 @ SA on the turf.
Only other horse I considered was the 1-Self Insured. That 95 poly sprint 3 back stood out but that 83 in a turf sprint last out seemingly without trouble knocked him out for me. I won't add what my records show about trainers who run back after claiming from Jeff Mullins - suffice it so say, it's not good.
Since Ive got 2 different turf distances and a poly route and based on the fact that the speed ratings of the pacelines are close, I project all lines to a mile and use the 2 adjust to equaliize total energies.
The winning read out for this dist/surface all meet is the EXDC screen. It shows Rummy nosing out Joshua. The SP screen is clearly Joshua. Notice Rummy's advantage in the EP and MP sections of the EXDC screen.
I also show you the AOdds Contender screen which shows Rummy's advantage fairly clearly. If you own the 1c, 2c and 2f in a turf route at SA with early positioning as well, and you sit on the board @ 10-1 with a 5-1 ML, I'm a happy camper. I made the win bet and did not play the exacta (not sure why).
It was not close at the end. Rummy used his EP and MP advantages to win for fun. Joshua eventually got up to place over Changing. Rummy was a gift at $22.40. The exacta paid $25.60
Hope this was useful and I'm sure RDSS would have similar screens. This is basically how I play a race. You don't hit 'em all but you don't need many at $22.40. I could not do this without the confidence of knowing the SoCal circuit and esp., in this case, that mile turf profile this meet.
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